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Royal LePage Trims Its Price Outlook for Toronto and Vancouver
The brokerage now expects Canada's two most expensive housing markets to end 2026 lower than it forecast at the start of the year, even as it raises its outlook for the country as a whole
Published: July 14, 2026
Royal LePage has revised its year-end price forecast downward for Toronto and Vancouver, even as the brokerage grows more optimistic about the national housing market overall. The updated outlook now expects the Greater Toronto Area and Greater Vancouver, historically Canada's priciest markets, to close out 2026 with prices roughly 2 per cent and 3.5 per cent lower, respectively, than where they started the year.
The downgrade reflects a slower-than-expected recovery in both regions, where year-over-year prices fell roughly 4.5 per cent in the second quarter alone. High borrowing costs earlier in the year, combined with elevated inventory levels, gave buyers little incentive to compete aggressively for listings, keeping a lid on price growth even as sales activity has started to pick back up heading into summer.
Nationally, the picture looks different. Royal LePage has actually nudged up its full-year forecast for the aggregate Canadian home price, pointing to stronger-than-anticipated demand in mid-sized markets across the Prairies, Atlantic Canada and parts of Quebec, where affordability has held up far better than in Ontario and British Columbia.
That divergence underscores how uneven Canada's housing recovery has become. While buyers in cities like Calgary, Halifax and parts of Quebec are competing for listings again, Toronto and Vancouver continue to work through a glut of resale and pre-construction condo inventory that has kept price growth pinned down well into 2026.
Royal LePage executives say the revised forecast should not be read as a sign of a deepening correction, but rather a recognition that Toronto and Vancouver need more time to absorb existing supply before meaningful price appreciation returns. The company still expects both markets to post gains in 2027, assuming borrowing costs continue to ease and buyer confidence keeps improving.
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